Invoke was right in predicting a win for Harapan, but wrong about PAS being wiped out…

10 May 2018





5h5 hours ago



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7 May 2018

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KUALA LUMPUR (May 7): Invoke Malaysia, an outfit founded by PKR vice president Rafizi Ramli, has predicted a win for Pakatan Harapan chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in Langkawi in Wednesday’s general election.

The 92-year old former Prime Minister is up against PAS’s Zubir Ahmad and Barisan Nasional incumbent Datuk Nawawi Ahmad for the seat.

However, Invoke is predicting a loss for BN heavyweight and UMNO vice-president Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein in Sembrong, Johor, where he faces Pakatan’s Onn Abu Bakar.

Also expected to lose, according to Invoke, is BN’s Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong in Ayer Hitam, Johor, where he faces Pakatan’s Liew Chin Tong and PAS’s Mardi Marwan.

Invoke also does not expect a win for BN incumbent Tan Sri Shahrir Samad in Johor Bahru, where the Felda chairman is up against Pakatan’s Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir, a protege of Rafizi.

The predictions were based on a two-week survey conducted among 11,991 registered voters up till last Thursday.

Other eyebrow-raising predictions include a loss for MCA president Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai in Bentong, Pahang, and a defeat for MIC president Datuk Seri Dr S Subramaniam in Segamat, Johor.

Liow faces Pakatan’s Wong Tack and PAS’s Balasubramaniam Nachiappan in Bentong, while Subramaniam is up against Pakatan’s Datuk Seri Dr Edmund Santhara and PAS’s Khairul Faizi Ahmad Kamil in Segamat.

Other predictions included a slim win for Khairy Jamaluddin in Rembau, Negeri Sembilan. The Umno Youth chief, who is commonly known as “KJ”, faces Pakatan’s Lt Col (Rtd) Roseli Abdul Gani and PAS’s Mustafa Dolah for the Parliamentary seat.

7 May 2018



Invoke predicts slim win for Harapan, wipeout for PAS

Published on  |  Modified on

GE14 | Invoke Malaysia’s has predicted that Pakatan Harapan would form the next federal government with a simple majority based on its latest voter inclination modeling exercise and survey results for Peninsula Malaysia.

The group also predicted that PAS would not win a single seat – state and parliament – throughout Peninsula Malaysia, contrary to the Islamist party’s research centre predicting a green tsunami in its favour.

BN, on the other hand, is expected to do well only in Perlis, Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan, but would only win 54 parliamentary seats against Harapan’s 111.

The survey involved 11,991 respondents, who were selected through random stratified sampling and weighted according to the population for each state. The data was finallised last Thursday.

Invoke Malaysia’s founder Rafizi Ramli explained that the latest survey found that Harapan’s Malay support had grown in recent weeks and was closing in on the support BN has.

In contrast, PAS’ support nationwide was estimated to be at a stable 27 percent.

Rafizi, who is also PKR vice-president, said apart from Penang, Selangor and the Federal Territories, Harapan’s Malay support was slightly behind BN, from a range of 3.5 percent to 13.1 percent.

Key: Mixed-seats

In view of the expected high non-Malay support for Harapan, Rafizi said this would help the coalition win in most of the 90 mixed-ethnicity parliamentary constituencies while the 35 non-Malay majority constituencies were already in the bag.

“I need to bring the perspective of vote differential. In order to produce the kind of result that BN achieved in the last election, BN had a 30 percent advantage over (Harapan’s predecessor) Pakatan Rakyat in terms of Malay support.

“Look at the differential now. There is not a single state where it is above even 20 percent,” he added.


Rafizi explained that the predictions were not the result of “gut feelings” but based on the model that Invoke had designed.

Some of the bold predictions by Invoke’s model was that Harapan would sweep all parliamentary seats in Selangor and win 54 out of 56 state seats.

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