Recession outlook: Economic decline unlikely after hot May jobs report

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Insider

A recession is unlikely to hit the US economy in the next 12 months after Friday’s hot jobs report

Matthew Fox

Jun 5, 2023, 10:25 PM MYT

  • The odds of a recession in the next 12 months fell considerably after May’s strong jobs report, DataTrek Research said.
  • The May report showed that 339,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, well ahead of economist estimates.
  • “History does support the idea that May’s job growth pushes back the start of a US recession by at least 6 to 12 months,” DataTrek said.

The US economy is unlikely to fall into a recession in the next six to 12 months following the Friday release of May’s solid jobs report, according to a Monday note from DataTrek Research.

The May employment report showed that 339,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, well ahead of economist estimates of 195,000.

The strong jobs number, combined with no signs of incremental wage pressure and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, represented a goldilocks report for investors because it signaled that despite the solid jobs growth, the Fed could still hit the pause button on further rate hikes at its policy meeting next week.

The S&P 500 surged 1.5% on Friday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2% in reaction to the jobs report.

“The US labor market remains strong,” DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said, and that strength pushes off the likelihood of a recession that so many Wall Street strategists and business CEOs have been warning about in recent months.
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“History does support the idea that May’s job growth pushed back the start of a US recession by at least six to 12 months. In no case since 1980 has the US economy slipped into a recession any sooner than that after a jobs report similar to what we got on Friday,” Colas said.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-outlook-economic-decline-unlikely-after-hot-may-jobs-report-2023-6

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-outlook-economic-decline-unlikely-after-hot-may-jobs-report-2023-6

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Investigating China’s Secret Overseas Stations | 101 East Documentary

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Ukraine War: ‘First documentary evidence’ of Iran supporting Russia with artillery and ammunition

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‘Would you two please talk?’ – Observers lament underwhelming US, China handshake at Singapore summit

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Kedah MB spoke of Chinese in Kedah and “potong lanjiau”

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Sanusi had allegedly used the word when speaking about how non-Muslims would not be victimised if PAS were to take over Penang. 

His speech at the ceramah was held as political parties are now gearing up for state elections in Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Negri Sembilan, and Selangor.

https://www.thevibes.com/articles/news/94115/file-more-reports-against-sanusi-for-hokkien-expletive-rayer

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Andrew A. Michta: A Chinese assessment posted in Feb. 25, 2022, predicting Russia’s victory against #Ukraine within 48 hours and tying lessons learned to a planned blitzkrieg against #Taiwan, predicting PRC victory in 72 hrs

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Russia-Ukraine war has important inspiration for China’s operations against Taiwan

February 25, 2022

in World Military News

Reading Time: 3 mins read

In the current Russian-Ukrainian War, the speed of advancement and the form of warfare of the Russian army will become a case of deduction by military departments and military academies of various countries. The inspiration for the generals of various countries is comparable to the Gulf War in 1990, it is even more inspirational for PLA’s future possible operations against Taiwan, military analyst Wang Ya recently wrote in an article.

Russian military forces completely paralyzed Ukraine’s overall command capability within an hour and destroyed its airpower almost completely on the ground. Within the next 12 hours, ground and airborne forces completed the occupation of key target areas, and odds are that the war objectives will be achieved within 48 hours. Russia has destroyed a medium-sized country with a standing army of 150,000 and a complete military-industrial system in less than a day.

Speaking of China, at a press conference at the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the 24th, Hua Chunying said that China is still the only permanent member of the Security Council that has not yet achieved the complete reunification of the motherland. And the situation in Ukraine and how to fight the war between Russia and Ukraine have a direct impact on China’s unification of Taiwan and “how to fight the armed reunification”.

First, a quick solution to the battle. Just as Russia’s war against Ukraine is likely to be resolved within 48 hours, if the “war of reunification of Taiwan” starts, the “highest goal” of the PLA is to “reunify Taiwan”. The PLA will never delay and will not give the U.S., Japan and Europe the time and opportunity to intervene militarily and politically. The PLA will also defeat the island’s naval and air forces in the shortest possible time, seize air and sea control, provide security for subsequent landing operations, “eliminate” Taiwan’s combat power within 48 hours, and take full control of Taiwan within 72 hours.

Second, modern system warfare will come into play, and all aspects of sea, land, air, sky, network and psychological warfare will be launched. PLA will surround Taiwan in all directions and cut off Taiwan’s military control centers, airports, and ports in the first place. Priority will be given to covering targets through air firepower. This will all be very similar to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Third, civilian casualties will be minimized and only Taiwan’s military personnel and facilities will be targeted.

Fourth, “saturation attacks” on Taiwan’s “hubs” will be carried out in one fell swoop. In modern formalized warfare, there are very few cases of “fighting a big battle with a small one”, whether in Ukraine or Taiwan, urban warfare and alley warfare are extremely unlikely.

Read more:

https://www.china-arms.com/2022/02/russia-ukraine-war-inspiration-taiwan/

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Economics – Money Supply (M2)

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Is tumbling Money Supply M2 cause for alarm?

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https://dailyhodl.com/2023/06/04/86580000000-enters-us-banking-system-in-one-week-as-deposit-flight-reverses/

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Uncle Lim Kit Siang is now Tan Sri Lim Kit Siang

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Two reasons behind the US Dollar’s big month of May 2023

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After all the BAD news for the dollar like dedollarisation, BRICS, the Brics currency, the US debt crisis and declaration of the death of the dollar by prophets of doom, May 2023 should have been a bad month for the dollar.

However, May 2023 was a good month for the US dollar.

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