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#China – #Philippines testing the waters of a short sharp war
Ships collide over disputed shoal as perceptions grow Beijing may launch a swift hard strike on Manilaâs newfound assertiveness.
The Philippines and China are on a literal collision course at sea after their boats collided on October 22 near the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the bubbling South China Sea. Both sides blamed the other for the incident as diplomatic tempers flared in a maritime zone with high geopolitical stakes.
A China Coast Guard vessel collided with a Philippines-contracted resupply boat at about 6:00 am on Sunday approximately 25 kilometers east-northeast of the BRP Sierra Madre grounded vessel outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine task force said in a statement. It claimed Chinaâs âprovocative, irresponsible and illegal actionâ imperiled the Filipino crew.
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The resupply mission to the grounded vessel BRP Sierra Madre, which serves as a de facto Philippine base on the Second Thomas Shoal, has been a joint effort between the Philippine Navy (PN) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG).
As a low-tide elevation within the Philippinesâ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), per an arbitral tribunal ruling at the Hague in 2016, the Second Thomas Shoal cannot legally be claimed as a territory by China, whose expansive nine-dash line claim was nullified on the legal basis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
With the US seemingly bogged down in multiple conflicts in Ukraine and now Israel, China is clearly testing the waters in the South China Sea.
Apart from reinforcing its expansive claims, the Asian superpower is also seeking to intimidate the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration, which has pivoted back to Western allies in defiance of Beijingâs earlier expectations.
As a result, there are growing fears that China may resort to short, sharp kinetic operations to regain the initiative and reimpose its will over the contested waters and put down the Philippinesâ rising challenge contested territories.
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Since coming to power last year, Marcos Jr has progressively embraced expanded defense cooperation with the Pentagon to keep Beijingâs aggressive actions at bay.
Failing to secure any major concessions on the maritime disputes during his trip to Beijing earlier this year, the Filipino president has increasingly placed his hopes in an American security umbrella under an expanded EDCA.
To Chinaâs chagrin and surprise, Marcos Jr has effectively injected the Philippines into the Taiwan issue by granting the US military access to prized bases in the Southeast Asian nationâs northernmost provinces.
Frustrated by Manilaâs more assertive stance, but now suddenly likely encouraged by Washingtonâs potential strategic overstretch, Beijing may soon push the envelope harder in the South China Sea.
In Philippine security circles, there is growing concern over the possibility that China may opportunistically engage in calibrated skirmishes, as it did vis-Ă -vis India in the Himalayas in recent years, to reimpose its will over the Philippines.
The Asian powerhouse has long relied on a âsalami slicingâ or âcabbageâ strategy to expand its footprint in the South China Sea, always pushing just short of risking direct armed conflict or triggering the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty.
Chinaâs smaller rivals have been struggling to respond to its âgray zoneâ provocations, most especially its growing reliance on militia-driven swarming tactics. But now, they also seemingly need to prepare for potential small-scale but bloody skirmishes.
Confronting extraordinary circumstances, China may now be tempted to resort to a âshort sharp warâ against certain of Americaâs Asian allies, some analysts suggest.
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Short of a major diplomatic breakthrough or stronger signal of support from the US, the Philippines and China may soon graduate from collisions at sea to a short sharp war â with major implications for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
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