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𝟰 𝗣𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗜𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 – 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁

“We’re in a situation I call “the Ides of July”, where we have intensive deal-making taking place. Some of it is happening on Jalan Bellamy, some of it at Wisma Perwira. And we have fundamental issues that are taking place.” – Dr Bridget Welsh, Honorary Research Associate with Malaysia’s Asia Research Institute at the University of Nottingham, comments on the political situation in the country. This follows reports over potential changes in the leadership of Perikatan Nasional, as well as the emergence of a completely new government, ahead of the first parliamentary sitting since the Emergency was declared.

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As Malaysians closely follow the ongoing developments, Bridget shares 4 potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks.

𝟭. 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗻 𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁—𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿

“One scenario is an internal PN replacement of leadership, This is where Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin steps back and someone else takes over. These are the issues that are being talked about on Jalan Bellamy, for example, Hisham emerging (as a potential replacement). This is essentially where the PN coalition stays intact and there is a new leadership from within. Most likely it would come from UMNO as a way of compromising, to keep UMNO in PN’s tent. But this of course has problems, because the candidate may not have support from all of UMNO,” Bridget notes.

𝟮. 𝗠𝘂𝗵𝘆𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻

“The second scenario is that Muhyiddin stays, but it continues to be a weak government. It may even emerge to become a minority government that is allowed to govern, because there are no other alternatives,” the academic briefly says without elaborating further.

𝟯. 𝗔 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝗸𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗻 𝗛𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗻 (𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳)

“The third situation is a (different type of) leadership replacement. This is where Anwar gets the support he needs from Zahid’s numbers to become prime minister (even though) there are splits in UMNO. And of course that configuration is seen as going back to a PH dynamic where they are in a position of leadership again, but this time around with UMNO,” Bridget explains.

𝟰. 𝗔 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

“The fourth scenario is a new government altogether, where a senior statesman like Tengku Razaleigh is brought in to lead. Or there could be a new compromise figure that is brought in. And this may include different (and new) types of alliances. And looking at these scenarios it’s important to look at leadership and composition. Is DAP in it? Is PAS in it? Keep in mind that Pakatan Harapan may be split in this situation. All of these issues are being discussed by different parties in the deals that are currently taking place. People are trying to find solutions to the political impasse, but this is very much happening at the elite level,” The honorary research fellow says regarding the possibility of a completely new political configuration.

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