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PH-BN will win; perhaps 40- 45 seats?
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Selangor has 56 state assembly seats with 29 required for a simple majority to form the government.
During GE14, PH won 51, BN 4 and 1.
However, after Sheraton Move: PH has 40 seats (PKR 19, DAP 15, Amanah 6), BN 5, Bersatu 4, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) 2, PAS 1, Pejuang 1, Warisan 1, and Independent 1. Batang Kali was declared vacant after the elected representative failed to attend the assembly sitting for over six months.
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Saturday, 24 Jun 2023 7:47 PM MYT
SHAH ALAM, June 24 — The Selangor state elections will see intense campaigning for 34 constituencies with a majority of Malay voters, according to political analysts.
With seats in urban areas expected to be dominated by Pakatan Harapan (PH), analysts say Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and PH are all aware that winning all 34 seats, representing more than 60 per cent of Malay voters, will enable the formation of the next state government.
Universiti Teknologi Mara’s (UiTM) Institution of Malay Rulers Chair fellow Mujibu Abd Muis said traditionally, the Malay-majority seats, located mostly in the north of Selangor, see clashes between BN and PN, but with the current political scenario the competition for votes in the area will definitely be interesting.
He said with 22 other seats in areas having mixed seats and a high number non-Malay voters who are believed to remain loyal to PH, these 34 seats will be the main battleground.
He believes the cooperation between PH as the state government and BN, would be advantageous to any candidate from the two coalitions in view of the support from the grassroots to face candidates from PN consisting of PAS, Bersatu and Gerakan.
“If the cooperation between PH-BN translates well at the state level, I am sure it will be a big advantage for their candidates to compete against PN for the 34 seats
“The current political dynamics in the PH-BN collaboration can be seen to be a factor in changing the pattern of support that PN received in the 15th general election (GE15),” he told Bernama.
Meanwhile, Universiti Selangor (Unisel) deputy vice-chancellor Assoc Prof Dr Hamdan Mohd Salleh believes PN’s success in dominating the parliamentary seats in the northern region of Selangor, which had a majority of Malay voters in GE15, will make the clash during the state elections this time around more interesting and challenging.
He said the state seats with a majority of Malay voters include Sungai Air Tawar, Sabak, Sungai Panjang, Hulu Bernam, Batang Kali, Sungai Besar, Permatang, Jeram, and Kuang were being eyed by all contesting parties to balance the high non-Malay voter turnout in 22 seats in the urban areas.
“Taking into account the success of PN in the Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Tanjung Karang and Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituencies in GE15, we can expect an interesting clash in the northern region of Selangor.
“However, now that PH and BN are in one team, I am confident that the voting trend at the parliamentary level in GE15 will not be an absolute guarantee that the voters in rural communities in this state election will remain in favour of PN,” he said.
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weehingthong 