The Base Rate Fallacy


The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate in favor of the individuating information. Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect.

A hospital with more vaccinated than unvaccinated people in it might seem worrisome at first, but that’s to be expected in a highly vaccinated population[1]




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