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The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate in favor of the individuating information. Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect.
A hospital with more vaccinated than unvaccinated people in it might seem worrisome at first, but that’s to be expected in a highly vaccinated population[1]
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A village has 1000 folk >90y.
— Alastair McAlpine, MD (@AlastairMcA30) February 20, 2023
990 get vaccinated. 10 do not.
9 out of 990 vaxed die (0.1%).
1 out of 10 unvaxed die (10%).
Correct conclusion: Vaccine reduces death 100 fold.
Antivaxx incorrect conclusion: “9 TIMES AS MANY VAXED DIE AS UNVAXED!!!!!” pic.twitter.com/0yriC9TnYM
In yet another example of why I never went into mathematics, 9/990 is approximately 1%, NOT 0.1%
— Alastair McAlpine, MD (@AlastairMcA30) February 20, 2023
My apologies, but the point about base rate fallacy still stands.
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weehingthong