This report explores how successful China might be at implementing its grand strategy over the next three decades.⬇️ #JointAddress https://t.co/qWYhXBdEYf

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) April 29, 2021

Will China achieve its grand strategy goals by 2050? And what will U.S.-China relations look like then?

New RAND research describes 4 possible scenarios at mid-century:

🇨🇳triumphant China
🇨🇳ascendant China
🇨🇳stagnant China
🇨🇳imploding China

[thread] https://t.co/3fIkvEipsb

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) July 24, 2020

The researchers found that a "triumphant China" scenario, in which Beijing is remarkably successful in realizing its grand strategy, is least likely.

Such an outcome presumes little margin for error and the absence of any major crisis or serious setback between now and 2050.

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) July 24, 2020

An "imploding China" scenario, in which Beijing is besieged by a multitude of problems that threaten the existence of the communist regime, is not likely.

To date, Chinese leaders have proved adept at planning, surmounting crises, and adjusting to changing conditions.

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) July 24, 2020

Overall, the report recommends that the U.S. prepare for a China whose role on the global stage grows steadily.

The U.S. Army should optimize its abilities to deter hostilities, get troops and equipment to hot spots quickly, operate from forward bases, and work w/ allied forces.

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) July 24, 2020

But Beijing’s intense preoccupation with internal security and deep suspicions regarding U.S. intentions toward China may frustrate Washington’s attempts to improve bilateral relations and encourage more liberal domestic policies.

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) July 24, 2020

There’s much more to explore in the full report.

Download it here: https://t.co/g3jsSJRkNB /end

— RAND (@RANDCorporation) July 24, 2020