The Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research’s failure to predict the result of GE 14 correctly: Was it poor research that led to poor analysis?
AFTER ITS MONUMENTAL FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GE 14 RESULTS, IT MAKES ANOTHER PREDICTION THAT MANY WILL FIND DIFFICULT TO SWALLOW…
14 June 2018
Still believe in Merdeka Center? They predicted an overwhelming victory for BN ! To say only 30% Malay support for PH ???
Report: 95% Chinese but less than 30% Malays voted for PH
Straits Times daily says the roughly equal split in Malay votes among PH, PAS and BN will have major implications in future elections.
KUALA LUMPUR: About 95% of Chinese voters chose Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the May 9 general election, more than the 85% who supported the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition in 2013, the Straits Times (ST) reported today.
However, only 25-30% of Malays voted for PH, the report added, citing figures from Merdeka Center. It said 35-40% of Malays voted for Barisan Nasional (BN) while 30-33% supported PAS.
The paper warned that the split in Malay votes would have major implications in future elections as PH, BN and PAS fight it out for their support.
It quoted Merdeka Center’s research manager Tan Seng Keat as saying that while many traditional BN supporters were unhappy with former prime minister Najib Razak and his goods and services tax, they did not trust PH, either.
This was because some Malays believed PAS and BN propaganda that PH was controlled by the Chinese-dominated DAP.
“Propaganda indoctrination over all these years cannot change in just a few days of campaigning, even with Dr Mahathir Mohamad there. For them, Umno is a Malay party, a Muslim party. They feel safe,” Tan told ST.
The report, quoting analysts, said the split Malay vote meant that PH leaders must tread carefully in framing issues deemed sensitive to Malays if they wanted to gain their trust.
And Umno and PAS would try even harder to woo the Malays by using the familiar baits of race and religion, they said.
This, according to the report, could be seen in the Malay backlash over PH’s appointment of non-Malays as finance minister and attorney-general (AG). DAP’s Lim Guan Eng is finance minister while Tommy Thomas has been appointed as AG.
Analysts also cautioned PH against any “fast moves into sensitive areas”.
2 May 2018
Malaysia PM likely to win election but opposition could win popular vote — survey
KUALA LUMPUR (May 2): With just a week to go to a general election, Malaysia’s main opposition bloc is making gains and will likely win the popular vote, but Prime Minister Najib Razak is expected to retain power, according to a survey by pollster Merdeka Center.
Malaysians vote on May 9, with Najib going up against his former mentor turned critic Mahathir Mohamad, a former long-serving prime minister now leading the opposition.
Najib is facing his toughest election yet as he grapples with public anger over rising costs and a financial scandal at a state fund.
Mahathir’s Pakatan Harapan coalition is likely to win 43.7% of the popular vote, as of May 1, up from a forecast of 42%, as of April 9, Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian said on Wednesday.
Najib’s Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition is expected to win 40.3% of the popular vote, as of May 1, down slightly from an April 9 forecast of 40.8%, Ibrahim said.
The Merdeka Center is one of Malaysia’s few independent pollsters.
The poll was conducted in west Malaysia, which accounts for nearly 75% of parliamentary seats. It did not include the Malaysian part of Borneo island.
26 April 2018
GE14 to see 8% Malay vote swing to Pakatan in peninsula, but BN will prevail, says Merdeka Center
KUALA LUMPUR (April 26): Almost 8% of Malay votes may swing to the opposition in the 14th general election (GE14), the latest survey by opinion pollster Merdeka Center shows.
The survey indicated that Malay sentiment against the ruling coalition is likely to cause a 7.9% swing in the May 9 polls, Merdeka Center programme director Ibrahim Suffian said at a seminar on the election outlook tonight.
“Yes (there will be a Malay tsunami), but (it will be) diffused across state and contesting parties. Each state has its own unique dynamic reflective of local political history, contemporary condition and developments, and relative strength of the local political actor,” he said.
“Despite going it alone, PAS continues to hold on to core Malay supporters. Due to the split in Malay opposition votes, the Pakatan Harapan and PAS face an uphill challenge to win seats as the BN block of voters is fairly solid,” he said.
“The split in opposition votes appears to prompt some undecided voters to go back to BN in some states as they are loyal to none of the parties, but may be more pragmatic in their choices or want to be inspired by (BN) leaders. BN will prevail despite a lower vote share,” he said.
7 January 2018
Najib will win GE14, regain two-thirds majority, says survey
DR Mahathir Mohamad’s mission to drive Prime Minister Najib Razak out of Putrajaya in the 14th general election will fail, a nationwide survey has shown.
The Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research poll conducted in December finds that although Barisan Nasional’s (BN) share of the popular vote is likely to shrink further, a combination of three-cornered fights and redelineation could enable the coalition to regain a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) fractious nature could also drive the opposition’s failure, concludes the the survey, which results were presented at the CIMB Malaysia Corporate Day last week.
“BN is just 13 seats short of regaining a two-thirds majority in Dewan Rakyat. With an intra-opposition deal looking increasingly remote, BN is in a position to regain its two-thirds,” said Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.
“The opposition’s prospects range from slim to zero as PAS leaders appear keen to prevent a PH victory. PAS seems ready to assist Umno on the grounds of preserving Malay political hegemony.”