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They say that recession has started “with a probability of 40%”; whatever it means.
So has the recession started in the US?
— Pascal Michaillat (@pmichaillat) August 11, 2024
In new work with Emmanuel Saez, we find that yes, as of July 2024, the US is in recession with 40% probability. The US may have entered the recession as early as March 2024.https://t.co/xAKrEjyreE pic.twitter.com/R84cmozABv
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Sahm rule: My recession rule was meant to be broken, says Claudia Sahm https://t.co/UtVDJvnw39
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 8, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 8, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 8, 2024
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From Claudia Sahm’s article in @opinion on the Sahm Rule:
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 7, 2024
“The Sahm rule relies on a powerful feedback loop: Relatively small increases in the unemployment rate can turn into large ones. Workers without paychecks weigh on consumer demand, leading to more workers without… pic.twitter.com/u3uaDmpUsv
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The Sahm rule, which is meant to act as an early diagnosis of a recession, is blinking red. But @Claudia_Sahm explains why her rule may not apply this time https://t.co/YBBRc0LWWZ via @opinion pic.twitter.com/VfaZw1rjXa
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) August 7, 2024
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Sahm Rule has now been triggered. As I wrote, this *probably* doesn’t mean we’re in a recession given special circumstances, but economy is now definitely pre-recessionary https://t.co/DccYW5Jn2K
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) August 2, 2024
https://t.co/X4MzRvqX5R pic.twitter.com/iv9FQF6tyX
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
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— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
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Business Insider: Yes, likely.
2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates https://t.co/mnpAV0HyXV
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
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The Sahm Rule
https://t.co/1DoIQzllat pic.twitter.com/XlPTHdVhXA
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
— simonthong aka kitty poo (@KittyPo80176717) August 4, 2024
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weehingthong 