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Looks like if the US are going to raise tariffs on China then Beijing are going to start offloading massive amounts of Treasuries. Are the US ready for a Truss-style fiscal crisis? It might well be coming. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 pic.twitter.com/7iNQy8I3wZ
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 18, 2024
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1/ Here is a thread on why recent record sales by the Chinese of US Treasuries might be one of the first signs of a major fiscal crisis in the US. There is a lot of confusion about how this would work so let's go through it step by step. pic.twitter.com/K2bBdLd4TS
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
3/ The United States runs a consistent, large trade deficit. As predicted – because it is a necessity – this trade deficit must be matched with financial inflows. Let's look at what those inflows are. pic.twitter.com/4iWFRKtek2
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
5/ These are the key balancing item that allows the US to run its trade deficit. What are they? A lot of them are Treasury bonds. pic.twitter.com/8y9DPgFOzI
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
7/ These investors are buying Treasuries because interest rates are high. Right now they look like an attractive investment. But these investors are 'yield sensitive' and so if interest rates come down they will likely dump the bonds. pic.twitter.com/zZZFZ1v9Mp
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
9/ All this is coming on the back of a major Russian-Chinese economic and military alliance that explicitly pushes for a multipolar world order. pic.twitter.com/p8t5rWlXeS
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
11/ It appears that those who publish these papers still think 'narrative control' is meaningful. But it no longer is. Only hard economic realities matter now and so the Western press has become like Pravda – a Potemkin Village built for Western leaders to deny reality. pic.twitter.com/3blr2E80NI
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
13/ And so the Chinese just keep offloading US Treasuries, handing them off to yield sensitive investors while recycling the money into gold. pic.twitter.com/DfJuT9PDN1
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
15/ The people who understand the dynamics at play wait for a recession to kick off to see if lower rates and higher debt issuance will lead to foreign investors dumping Treasuries and forcing the US trade deficit to close – and living standards to fall accordingly.
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) May 19, 2024
END/ pic.twitter.com/018tN3Usv8
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weehingthong 