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Excerpts from:
China’s economic woes, explained
September 13, 2023
Ian Bremmer
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What happens next?
Now that the real estate boom has gone bust, China’s economy is unraveling under the weight of its contradictions.
Property prices are crashing. Household wealth is getting wiped out. Borrowers are defaulting on their mortgages, in turn leading developers and lenders to default. Credit is flatlining. Revenues for local governments are drying up at the same time as their debt servicing costs rise. Domestic demand is plummeting as all these economic actors hunker down and go into deleveraging mode, causing a growth slowdown.
In the past, Beijing would’ve responded by injecting debt-financed stimulus into the property sector. But that strategy has reached the end of its rope. Large-scale bailouts by the central government to distressed developers, shadow banks, and local governments are also off the table for now.
The obvious thing Beijing could do to stimulate growth in the short term would be to give direct fiscal stimulus to consumers (especially the poor and unemployed, who have the highest propensity to spend). Consumer stimulus would also be a step in the right direction toward the kind of structural reform China needs to achieve more balanced and sustainable growth in the long term: shifting economic activity from investment to household consumption, which at 38% of China’s GDP is extremely low compared to the 60% global average and about 70% in the US.
But Xi is ideologically suspicious of consumption, both as a policy lever and as a driver of so-called “high-quality development.” The concern is that stimulating consumption would either exacerbate the property/debt bubble or be ineffective as households use the money to repay debts or save rather than spend. More broadly, Xi fears that the redistribution of resources required to give households a larger share of the pie could generate social unrest and undermine his and the Chinese Communist Party’s political control. And if there’s one thing you should know about Xi, it’s that he prioritizes social stability and political control above all else – including economic growth.
This is the sort of policy bind that would pose an urgent political crisis in any democracy. But China is no democracy. After his extreme consolidation of power post-20th Party Congress, Xi has the unique political ability to ignore the slowdown if he so chooses. And that is exactly what he’ll do unless his hand is unexpectedly forced by systemic financial contagion or mass protests – at which point the response could be too little, too late. Which means Chinese growth is going to be slower for longer, with the bigger structural challenges remaining unaddressed for the foreseeable future.
To be clear, China remains a highly competitive economy, with enduring advantages in manufacturing, renewable energy, and electric vehicles as well as leading-edge innovation in frontier industries such as advanced computing, AI, biotechnology, and the like.
Yet outside these clusters and absent a more decisive rebalancing from Beijing, China’s economy could soon begin to look like Japan’s in the 1990s, which suffered a “lost decade” of prolonged deflation, stagnant growth, and high indebtedness on the back of a stock market and property crash. The difference being that this “Japanification” would hit China at a much lower level of development, long before it can close the gap in living standards with rich countries.
Could a chronically weaker economy chip away at China’s social contract, undermining popular support for Xi and the CCP and weakening their grip on power? Could it tank the global economy? Could it prompt Beijing to become more aggressive abroad, making a conflict with the US over Taiwan more likely or imminent?
I’ll tackle these questions in future newsletters.
https://www.gzeromedia.com/chinas-economic-woes-explained
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weehingthong 